Nearly one in five used cars in Poland may have trouble entering clean transport zones
Transparency note: This press release was originally published in Polish. The text has been machine translated. You can find the original press release here.
Pre-1998 petrol cars account for 3% of used cars in Poland, while pre-2005 diesels account for 14%, according to the latest CARFAX analysis. These cars will no longer be allowed into the clean transport zone in Warsaw, and soon in other cities. Their average mileage is high, but the percentage of vehicles in accidents is lower than the overall used car population in Poland. Among petrol cars, this figure is just 12%, and among diesels – 28%. For the overall market, this figure is 39%. German brands such as Volkswagen, Audi, and Opel dominate.
Poland's first Clean Transport Zone (CCT), an area where only vehicles meeting specific emission standards are permitted, was established just over a year ago in Warsaw. Gasoline cars manufactured before 1997 and diesel cars manufactured before 2005 are prohibited (with some exceptions) . Such cars account for 17% of the over 23 million used cars in Poland database of CARFAX – a company that provides users with used car history reports from reliable and certified sources. Gasoline cars over 28 years old account for 3% of the total, while diesel cars over 20 years old account for a staggering 14%.
In Warsaw, exhaust emission standards for vehicles entering the clean transport zone will be tightened every two years. Additional Polish cities are planning to introduce SCTs, sometimes with more stringent requirements. This solution is already in place in many European cities.
Regulations won't force mass car replacement, but they will accelerate the selection process. Worn-out and inexpensive vehicles will disappear faster from large cities, but they will enter the market in smaller towns, extending their lifespans there. In cities, the average age of cars will fall, especially in the private segment, and the share of hybrids and electric vehicles will increase. However, in rural areas and in so-called district Poland, the fleet age may actually increase, and the secondary market will become polarized, comments Robert Lewandowski, Business Development Manager at CARFAX Polska. The green transformation of transport depends not only on restrictions but also on support in the form of subsidies, the development of public transport, and infrastructure. Some drivers will choose public transport or cycling, but many, especially outside large cities, will view regulations as a barrier that deepens social inequalities.
High Mileage, Low Claims Rate: The average mileage of a used car in Poland is 220,000 kilometers. For pre-1997 petrol cars, the average is 221,000 kilometers , and for diesels, 319,000 kilometers . Interestingly, in both of these groups, the percentage of cars involved in accidents and damage is lower than for the entire Polish used car market, which is 39%. Meanwhile, the percentage is 12% for petrol cars and 28% for diesels. [1] [2] [3] Vehicles affected by various risks (such as unusual odometer readings) account for 76% of the discussed group of petrol cars and 92% of diesels. The overall percentage for all cars used on Polish roads is 77%.
The low percentage of damaged cars may be due to the difficulty in finding such old data. Therefore, if you're interested in purchasing a car of this age, it's worth being especially cautious, says Robert Lewandowski, Business Development Manager at CARFAX Polska. The reason for such a large difference in mileage may be that older petrol cars were typically used as a second car on the farm. Diesels were more often used for intensive use, for example, in fleets, which results in higher mileage and the problem of odometer rollbacks, especially in imported cars.
Volkswagen and Audi dominate among old cars. When it comes to the most popular car models, in the case of petrol cars from before 1997, these are:
Volkswagen Golf : 7 percent of vehicles in this group; average age – 31 years, average mileage – 209,000 kilometers;
Audi A4 : 5 percent; average age – 28 years, average mileage – 309,000 kilometers;
Audi 80 : 4 percent; average age – 32 years, average mileage – 293,000 kilometers;
Volkswagen Passat : 4 percent; average age – 29 years, average mileage – 310,000 kilometers;
Opel Astra : 3 percent; average age – 29 years, average mileage – 233,000 kilometers.
When it comes to diesel cars from before 2005, the most common models are:
Volkswagen Passat : 8 percent; average age – 23 years, average mileage – 355,000 kilometers;
Volkswagen Golf : 5 percent; average age – 24 years, average mileage – 299,000 kilometers;
Audi A4 : 5 percent; average age – 23 years, average mileage – 352,000 kilometers;
Volkswagen Transporter : 4 percent; average age – 26 years, average mileage – 368,000 kilometers;
Opel Astra : 2 percent; average age – 22 years, average mileage – 292,000 kilometers.
As many as 70% of the gasoline cars in the analyzed group were imported from abroad. Only 9% remain the property of the original owner. Of the older diesels, 88% are imported, and only 1.5% are still owned by the original owner. For all used cars in Poland, these figures are 59% and 16%, respectively.