Why We'll All Want to Drive Electric Cars: An Expert on the Future of the Automotive Market
Transparency note: This press release was originally published in Polish. The text has been machine translated. You can find the original press release here.
Work on technologies that promise to be groundbreaking in the automotive market—such as hydrogen propulsion and fuel cells—is ongoing, but these solutions still face numerous limitations. However, we are currently on the verge of the greatest transformation in decades: solid-state battery technology (SSB), which eliminates barriers to range and charging time. Cars equipped with this technology could be on the road in just two to three years. Robert Lewandowski, Business Development Manager at CARFAX Polska, comments on the impact of this new technology on the future of the new and used car market.
The Polish automotive market is dominated by used cars, of which electric and hybrid vehicles account for only 4%, according to an analysis of the CARFAX database, which covers over 23 million used cars in Poland. Poland currently rankslast in Europe in terms of new electric vehicle registrations. Last year, sales of new electric vehicles in the passenger car segment fell by 3%.
Fifteen minutes of charging for a 500-kilometer drive – a revolution in electric vehicles is coming. Many drivers still view electromobility through the prism of political imperatives or EU directives, and skepticism toward battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) stems primarily from the limitations of current lithium-ion technology. Liquid-state batteries are heavy and have thermal limitations. However, the automotive industry is on the verge of a game-changing breakthrough – major companies are already in the advanced stages of testing Solid State Battery (SSB) technology. At the recent Japan Mobility Show, Toyota announced that it will introduce such batteries into its vehicles within two to three years.
Solid-state cells absorb energy much faster without overheating like current designs, and offer significantly higher energy density. A battery the same size as today's will allow you to travel twice as far, while being lighter and safer (no risk of leakage or ignition), and recharging for another 400-500 km will take 10-15 minutes.
New technologies will force a logical market segmentation, which we're slowly beginning to see today: city cars don't need a battery that's good for 600 km, which unnecessarily increases their price and weight. Thanks to efficient infrastructure and fast charging, a small car with a lightweight battery will become an affordable means of everyday transportation. Meanwhile, the latest, highest-density cells, offering realistic ranges of 800-1000 km, will find their way into highway cruisers, allowing for cross-country trips. The new generation of batteries might also ensure that a few-year-old electric car can perform no worse than a new one, halting drastic price declines and restoring the profitability of electric cars for fleets, which in turn can benefit into their presence on the secondary market.
The engine of the future – quiet and cheaper to repair
From an engineering perspective, the electric motor, compared to the combustion engine, is brilliant in its simplicity. It has few moving parts, no timing belt, no turbines, no DPF filters, and no complex gearbox. For the user, this means fewer and cheaper service visits, and for the manufacturer, greater production profitability and a higher return on investment in electromobility solutions.
It's also worth remembering that over the years, consumers have become increasingly demanding when it comes to comfort. Electric cars offer something that, in the combustion engine world, is reserved only for top-of-the-line limousines – silence and a lack of vibration. Once a user becomes accustomed to "electric silence," returning to a vibrating diesel or even modern gasoline engine is perceived by many as a drastic drop in comfort. Just as we don't want to go back to phones with keypads, we won't want to go back to noise.
We will therefore most probably switch to electric cars not out of necessity, but out of pragmatism. When the barriers of range and charging time disappear (which is expected in the coming years), the advantages of electric vehicles in comfort, operating costs, and dynamics will become overwhelming. The combustion engine will remain a solution for enthusiasts and collector cars, but in everyday transport, it will lose out to physics and economics, even when considering heavy-duty transport.
Work is also ongoing on other new automotive technologies, such as hydrogen propulsion, fuel cells, and solar panels. However, none of these solutions are yet at the development stage that would allow for widespread implementation, and each of these technologies faces limitations such as overly complex distribution and extremely high costs. However, it's worth monitoring progress in these areas, as they could lead to further market breakthroughs.